After New START: Nuclear Tensions Rise as U.S. Flags Concerns Over Russia and China

With the expiration of New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, a new wave of uncertainty is sweeping across the global security landscape. For over a decade, the treaty imposed verifiable limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. Now, with those constraints gone, strategic anxieties are resurfacing.

Speaking at a United Nations-backed disarmament forum in Geneva, a senior American official delivered pointed remarks that have further intensified the debate over nuclear transparency and strategic stability.

A Stark Warning from Washington

Addressing the conference, Christopher A. Ford, a senior U.S. official overseeing arms control and nonproliferation policy, raised serious concerns about both Russia and China. He claimed that approximately six years ago, China conducted a covert nuclear test, alleging that Beijing had kept the international community in the dark while significantly expanding its nuclear capabilities.

According to Ford, China’s nuclear buildup has been “unprecedented” and “carefully orchestrated,” carried out with limited transparency. He argued that while Beijing had offered assurances about maintaining restraint, its actions suggest a determined and rapid enlargement of its nuclear stockpile.

The Gaps in New START

While reflecting on the now-expired treaty, Ford acknowledged that New START had notable shortcomings. One of its major limitations, he suggested, was its narrow focus. The agreement capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems for the United States and Russia but did not address Russia’s sizeable inventory of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons.

Even more critically, the treaty excluded China altogether.

Ford described this omission as one of the agreement’s most significant weaknesses. In his view, the global nuclear equation has changed dramatically since the treaty was negotiated. At that time, China’s arsenal was comparatively modest. Today, Washington believes the balance is shifting at a much faster pace.

A Potential Shift in Nuclear Parity

One of the most striking assertions made during the conference was that China could reach nuclear parity with the United States and Russia within the next four to five years. While no precise figures were disclosed, the implication was clear: the era of a predominantly bipolar nuclear order may be giving way to a more complex tripolar competition.

Ford also criticized what he described as a lack of clarity from Beijing regarding its long-term nuclear objectives. Without transparency, he warned, miscalculation and mistrust become far more likely.

Diplomatic Flurry in Geneva

The expiration of arms control limits has triggered an intense round of diplomatic engagement.

• Meeting with Russia: On Monday, Ford held talks with members of the Russian delegation in Geneva to discuss the evolving strategic environment and the risks associated with the treaty’s lapse.
• Engagement with China: Talks with Chinese representatives were scheduled for the following day, with transparency and confidence-building measures expected to top the agenda.
• Consultations with Allies: U.S. officials have already conducted multiple rounds of discussions with other nuclear-armed partners, including France and the United Kingdom, as part of efforts to explore a broader and potentially more inclusive security framework.

A World Without Guardrails?

The end of New START removes formal caps and verification mechanisms that had provided a degree of predictability between Washington and Moscow. In a world already strained by geopolitical rivalries, technological advancements in missile systems, and shifting alliances, the absence of binding limits raises concerns about a renewed arms race.

At the same time, the debate is no longer confined to two superpowers. The rapid modernization of China’s nuclear forces has introduced new variables into strategic calculations, prompting calls in Washington for a future agreement that includes all major nuclear stakeholders.

For now, the diplomatic activity in Geneva underscores one reality: while old treaties may be fading, the urgency to prevent escalation remains as pressing as ever.