War Escalates: Iran Threatens Strikes with 1-Ton Warhead Missiles

On February 28, following attacks by the United States and Israel that resulted in the execution of key religious and military leaders, a barrage of drones and missiles was immediately launched. It now appears that the initial outburst of anger has shifted toward more calculated and deliberate strikes.

Amid the escalating conflict in West Asia, Iran has signaled a major shift in its military strategy. Tehran rejected claims by Israel and United States that their strikes had destroyed Iran’s missile launch infrastructure, announcing on Tuesday that its attacks would now become even more destructive. Brigadier General Seyyed Majid Mousavi commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, emphasized that Iran’s missile program remains fully operational and has not been weakened.

Following the February 28 strikes by the U.S. and Israel, which led to the execution of key religious and military leaders, Iran immediately launched a wave of drone and missile attacks. While the initial barrage reflected raw anger, the response has now shifted toward more calculated, deliberate strikes. U.S. and Israeli officials framed the attacks as successes, claiming they had neutralized up to 75 percent of Iran’s missile launchers. Tehran, however, maintains that the reduction in launches reflects a strategic adjustment rather than a setback.

The U.S. and Israel assert that targeting Iran’s missile launchers was the cause of the apparent decline in Iranian missile activity. According to reports, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and U.S. military claim that between 300 and 415 of Iran’s estimated 400–550 launchers were either destroyed or rendered inoperable. These figures, they argue, explain the noticeable drop in missile launches from Iran over the first days of the conflict.

Indeed, reports from the Jerusalem Post show that Iran’s ballistic missile launches fell roughly 92 percent from the peak of 480 on February 28 to just 40 by March 9. Similarly, drone attacks decreased from 720 to 60 in the same period. Analysts suggest several reasons for the decline: the effectiveness of U.S. and Israeli strikes on missile launchers, the threat to Iranian operators from U.S. and Israeli aircraft, and Tehran’s efforts to conserve missiles as a strategic reserve for later stages of the conflict.

In response to the claims of launcher destruction, Brigadier General Mousavi declared that Iran would now exclusively use missiles with heavier warheads—no missiles with warheads under one ton would be fired. He promised that missile waves would increase in size, number, and range, with attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets expected to intensify.

Experts, such as Farzan Sabet from the Geneva Graduate Institute, suggest that Iran may increasingly rely on drones, which can be deployed without sophisticated launching equipment. For instance, Shahed drones can be launched from military or commercial trucks, allowing Iran to maintain offensive capability even as missile stocks diminish.

The exact number of missiles remaining in Iran’s arsenal is unknown, but analysts like Sinan Ulgen, director of the Adam Think Tank in Istanbul, argue that Tehran may be conserving its most powerful weapons for later stages of the war, when early strikes may have depleted opposing defensive assets. This approach aligns with General Mousavi’s declaration of deploying higher-explosive payload missiles in upcoming attacks.

Meanwhile, Washington and Jerusalem are racing to neutralize Iran’s missile-firing capacity. U.S. forces have reportedly repositioned marine assets outside the range of Iranian missiles. Whether Iran’s missile-firing capability has genuinely diminished or whether this reflects a deliberate strategic shift will become clearer in the coming weeks, as the conflict—likely to continue for months—unfolds.